SIMULATION OF MONTE CARLO TO PREDICT WRITING PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN PT. SINAR DUNIA

Authors

  • Riki Ridwan Margana

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulation is a simulation where a solution of a problem is given based on the
randomization process. This random process involves a probability distribution of data variables
collected based on past data and theoretical probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulation is a
method used in modeling and analyzing systems that contain risks and uncertainties. This paper
uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to solve the problem by sampling from the process of
random numbers. This is done because the increasing interest in products sold by PT. Sinar
Dunia. So it is necessary to know the number of products that will be produced in the future in
order to facilitate the preparation that must be done beforehand, optimizing the time and funds
that will be used to avoid or minimize losses by the company. In the case of predicting the
production capacity of writing books at PT. Sinar Dunia, Monte Carlo simulation identifies the
production capacity of notebooks to be produced in the range of 6200-7000pcs every month for
the next 12 periods. Applying the Monte Carlo simulation method in predicting the production
capacity of notebooks using the Microsoft Excel program.

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Published

2021-01-03

How to Cite

Riki Ridwan Margana. (2021). SIMULATION OF MONTE CARLO TO PREDICT WRITING PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN PT. SINAR DUNIA. PalArch’s Journal of Archaeology of Egypt / Egyptology, 17(10), 1977-1984. Retrieved from https://www.archives.palarch.nl/index.php/jae/article/view/4932