PROJECTION OF INDONESIA’S EXPORT AND IMPORT VALUES DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted various sectors of the economy, including Indonesia's
export and import activities. This study aims to project the value of Indonesia's export and
import due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic for the first quarter of 2021. It is
conducted using a regression method. The results show that in the first quarter of 2021, the
export value is estimated to increase by 14.6%, compared to the previous quarter, to US$
52,602 million. With this figure, the export value will increase by 25.96% compared to the
same period in 2020. In addition, import value in the first quarter of 2021 is estimated to
increase by 12.6%, compared to the previous quarter, to US$ 39,429 million. With this figure,
the value of imports increases by only 0.66% compared to the same period in 2020. The
development of export and import gives a positive signal for the economy in Indonesia,
including the logistics sector.