MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF POULTRY PRODUCTION IN AL-HILLA DISTRICT IN IRAQ
In 1970 Jenkins, Box's extensive contributions appeared in the field of time series, where they devised a method with many advantages in analyzing time series in general and mixed models (ARIMA) (especially in terms of prognosis and control, as well as their names in connection with (ARIMA) models in Their popular book, "Time series analysis: forecasting and control".In 1993 the modern researcher speculated that the maize crop was produced in Iraq until 2000, using the Box-Jenkins models.That all the units of animal and poultry production are included in the strategic food channels. The ladder of food security priorities and various countries of the world strive to provide these products to their people through local production or importation in the absence of possibilities for their production as one of the essential commodities that meet the requirements of satisfying the human body's need for protein and one of the most criticalstandards for measuring the development and well-being of peoples. Because of the strategic importance of these commodities and their importance in domestic consumption and other economic activities, and the apparent burden they constitute on the state treasury when importing part of them from foreign markets, he dealt with the theoretical aspect related to time chains, chain components, general trend models, Box Jenkins models and criteria for differentiation between models. Trend models and Box Jenkins models were conducted and then predicted using the best model from among these models.